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The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.3%, while the Dow Jones fell 0.2%. The Russell 2000 has outperformed since the US presidential election, gaining over 10% in November. Analysts expect continued growth in US stocks, driven by solid economic conditions and advancements in AI, despite potential market corrections. Corporate highlights include Intel's search for a new CEO, AT&T's profit growth predictions, and BlackRock's acquisition of HPS Investment Partners. Key economic events this week include US factory orders and the jobs report.
The US dollar has reached two-year highs post-election, driven by strong economic data and reduced rate cut risks. However, UBS strategists caution against viewing this strength as a buying opportunity, citing an already factored-in positive outlook and the dollar's rich valuation. They advocate for contrarian strategies, favoring currencies like the British pound and select emerging market currencies, while predicting a 6% decline in the DXY over the medium term due to easing US yields.
Most Asian stocks rose, led by tech firms, as new US restrictions on Chinese tech exports were less severe than anticipated. Japan's Topix gained 1.3%, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng fell 0.6%. The dollar strengthened, and traders are preparing for significant economic data this week, including the US jobs report. Oil prices dipped slightly ahead of an OPEC+ meeting, and gold remained stable within a narrow range.
The Nasdaq 100 rose 1.1%, while the Dow Jones fell 0.3%, amid mixed market signals. Bitcoin and Ether declined by 2.2% and 2.5%, respectively, as the VIX dropped below 14, indicating reduced volatility. Corporate upheavals included Intel's CEO ousting and significant labor strikes at Volkswagen AG. Key economic indicators are set to be released this week, including US factory orders and the jobs report.
Commodity trading advisors (CTAs) faced significant losses in October, with the Tulip Trend Fund down 8.7% for the month and 7.1% year-to-date, primarily due to adverse currency and interest rate trends. The DUNN World Monetary & Agriculture Program reported an 8.92% loss, while the Quantedge Global Fund fell over 11% but remains up 17.88% for the year. Despite a challenging month, the Mulvaney Capital Global Diversified Program leads with a 51.51% annual gain, despite a 12.25% drop in October driven by currency bets.
UBS's recent survey of over 7,500 smartphone users across key markets indicates that iPhone purchase intent remains stable in the U.S. at 24%, while interest in China has decreased to 17%. Additionally, interest in generative AI among respondents is low, with only 30% expressing interest in a smartphone. UBS maintains a Neutral rating and a $236 price target for Apple shares.
The Nikkei 225 is currently consolidating around 37,000 to 41,000 points amid global economic uncertainties, particularly in Europe and China. With the Bank of Japan cautiously shifting towards monetary tightening due to rising domestic inflation, the risk/reward ratio favors buying the index, targeting 40,000 and 41,000 points, while a drop below 37,000 could signal a correction.
IG
Gold serves as a strong portfolio diversifier amid fiscal easing and geopolitical risks. U.S. growth is expected to outpace other economies, with potential fiscal expansions in Germany and China. However, sector concentration in technology raises concerns about sustainability and valuations as earnings surprises decline.
China’s 10-year government bond yield has fallen to a historic low of 2%, as traders anticipate further monetary policy easing to support the struggling economy. This marks the fifth consecutive week of decline for the benchmark yield, which dropped two basis points. Additionally, the 30-year yield decreased three basis points to 2.17%, falling below its Japanese counterpart for the first time in nearly two decades.
India's forex reserves fell by USD 1.31 billion to USD 656.582 billion for the week ending November 22, according to the Reserve Bank of India. This decline follows a significant drop of USD 17.761 billion the previous week, marking a continued decrease from the record high of USD 704.885 billion in late September. Foreign currency assets, a key component of the reserves, decreased by USD 3.043 billion to USD 566.791 billion, reflecting the impact of currency fluctuations.

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